End of Moore's law?

[Mark Woodward]

Moore's law as we have understood it may have stopped providing value 
for merely buying something new. We have all been doing it for the last 
20 or so years.  Every year and a half or two years, you could spend the 
same amount of money and get double the computer. 20MHZ 80386 a year and 
a half later was a 33MHZ 80386 with twice as much RAM and hard disk. The 
trend had been happening consistently for a long time.

Now, something is funny. I bought an HP laptop about 2 years ago. 1.9Ghz 
dual core, 2G RAM (Upgraded to 4G a year later) 160G HD (upgraded to 
320G a year later). My total for upgrades was about $120. I went to 
Microcenter and looked for laptop, the upgrade of the model I currently 
have had 4G RAM, 500G hard disk, and a 2.1Ghz dual core for about $250 
more than what I purchased my current laptop.

I recognize that it is a "better" machine than my two year old laptop, 
but it ain't all that much better. $120 upgrades that I made a year ago, 
make a $1000 new laptop almost senseless.

This is bad news in a lot of ways. if I can't justify replacing a 2 year 
old laptop based on performance improvements, I bet I am not alone. A 
lot of companies are built on Moore's law and the upgrade treadmill and 
the ripple effect is doubtless having an effect on just about everyone's 
employment.

Any thoughts?