Overqualified?!?!

[jkinz at ultranet.com]

Also taking into consideration Andy and John Tsangaris recent responses 
to this thread -   See below

On Thu, Jul 18, 2002 at 06:58:59PM +0000, johnmalloy at attbi.com wrote:
> 1.) They got their college education for free from their 
> Government.
Yes, some do, but some don't
> 2.) Our Gov't has consistently been cutting back on 
> education, which a very bad trend.
Probably true.
> 3.)  Perhaps you should get replaced by a few of "your 
> guys" (after you have trained them) and be out of work 
> for over  a year and lose all your benefits nad 
> insurance?
This is happening to some management positions as well

> Any logical suggestions?
> > On Thu, 18 Jul 2002 duan wrote:
> > Ok, twice I was going to respond to this, but both times I deleted my 
> > message because it was too flamey.  But abolish?
> > 
> > I have some H1B guys.  They are outstanding engineers, who I would 
> > have gladly hired if they were American, too.  I got them during the 
> > dotcom boom when I couldn't fill the jobs because college kids were 
> > dropping out like flies and demanding triple salaries for half the 
> > qualifications.  Just because the bottom fell out of the pot of gold 
> > isn't my problem, nor is it my H1Bs' fault.
> > 
> > If I was *still* loading up on H1B's rather than paying competitive
> > salaries to out of work American talent, then sure, you might have a
> > point.  But do you expect me to just get rid of these excellent guys
> > I already have?  What exactly did they do *wrong* other than being
> > from another country?  
> > 
> > Duane
> > 
> > 
> > 

Even before the dot.com boom stopped H1B visa-holders were displacing
"Native":-) American software types. (Really we're all imports aren't we?)

Even now recruiting agencies that specialize in H1B placement are 
lobbying to increase the number of allowed H1B visas, but are not
likely to succeed, given the current economy and political situation.

However, For US based software Engineers the H1B issue is really a minor
issue.  The real problem for US based engineers is how easy it is 
becoming to move software development and remote customer support 
functions to offshore talent pools.  Indian Engineers base compensation
is one fifth that of US based Engineers.  Chinese Engineers are 
one tenth the cost and the salary for tech jobs in Toronto, (Ontario Canada) 
are being 50% subsidized by the Canadian gov't (in a region where 
the an $80 K US job is paid only $40K, all $in USD).  

I know somebody will say "they can't program as well as 'US engineers'".

The US has a population of 400 million, India has 900 million, China 1.2
Billion.  Their gene pools are at least as good as ours, maybe better
due to lower standards of health care.  Both countries are committed to 
converting their commerce base to a high tech basis and have already
created the educational infrastructure for doing just that.  They are
now producing, literally, hundreds of thousands of engineers each year.
(Note - There are engineers of all types, not just hardware and software).

I think that somewhere in all that mass of humanity business will find 
enough talent to get what they want done.  I've seen code from 
Indian based development teams.  In 1993 the code I saw was very poor.
Just like would be produced in any US software shop with no coding standards
and no mature process.  The code was crappy but it worked, mostly.

Three years later, the same teams were producing much cleaner, more 
maintainable code.  Much pain was involved but their management was 
committed to improving the coding and they had a model to look to
for an example.  Code that US engineers had produced.  

So - Given a small amount of time, proper leadership and motivation
the quality level differences will become negligible.

What does this mean for US based Software/Hardware types ?

Much leaner times ahead.

Almost all low end manufacturing jobs were moved out of the US
years ago.  Consider how much easier it is to create a software
development shop in a less developed country than it is to build 
a factory.   Factories need HUGE amounts of Industrial strength 
infrastructure.  Rail/Shipping, huge amounts of water and reliable
electricity.   

To create a software shop you needs some PC's, a few phone lines that 
work most of the time, backed up by a cell phone and a small UPS plus
maybe a generator.  Your in business. Note - No Jolt Cola needed, just 
tea.
(yeah, I know its a little more complicated than that but so is a
real manufacturing facility, this is a relative comparison).



-- 
Jeff Kinz, Director, Emergent Research,  Hudson, MA.  "jkinz at ultranet.com" 
copyright 1995-2002.  Use restricted to non-UCE uses. Any other use is an 
acceptance of the offer at http://www.ultranet.com/~jkinz/policy.html.

eLviintuaxbrilse         Jon Hall, 1994